Monsoon 2021: With the further increase of rain in Kerala in the next 24 hours, the situation is forecast to be more favorable for monsoon. Monsoon usually reaches Kerala on June 1.
symbolic picture. (Photo- PTI)
In India, the farmer keeps looking towards the sky for rain in summer and he waits for the monsoon. His face blossoms as soon as the monsoon arrives. This time the monsoon is knocking late from the normal time. Conditions have started forming in the state for the southwest monsoon to reach Kerala on June 3. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday that the spatial rainfall distribution has increased over Kerala and westerly winds are blowing in the lower levels of the South Arabian Sea. The Kerala coast and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea are cloudy.
With the further increase of rain in Kerala in the next 24 hours, the situation is forecast to become more favorable for monsoon. Monsoon usually reaches Kerala on June 1. The IMD had earlier predicted the arrival of monsoon here on May 31 or four days more or earlier, but on May 30, it had said that the situation has not yet formed in Kerala.
For decades, the monsoon has usually knocked on the coasts of Kerala on 1 June. Over the past several years, the IMD has been predicting different dates for the onset of monsoon before fixing the revised date. Based on the data from 1961 to 2019, the IMD calendar shows that the monsoon arrives in Kerala on its normal date of June 1. According to the previous calendar based on the data of 1932-71, the monsoon used to cover the entire country by 15 July. In the new calendar, the monsoon spreads across India by 8 July. This means that the monsoon now picks up speed in one go.
More interestingly, monsoon compensates for the delayed arrival at many places. For example, the arrival of monsoon is delayed by 7-12 days at places like Agra in Uttar Pradesh, Ahmedabad in Gujarat and Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh. Yet he has covered the whole of India faster than before. For many decades it was believed that the departure of monsoon from India starts on 1st September. In a study published in October 2020, the IMD said that the withdrawal of monsoon has now started from September 17 instead of September 1.
Change in monsoon pattern may deepen food crisis
This study came out behind the longest delay of two years in the departure of monsoon from India. The traditional date of withdrawal of monsoon used to be September 1. In 2019, the monsoon started bidding farewell from October 9 and departed with a delay of 39 days, which was the longest in recorded history. Interestingly, the new calendar of the IMD shows that despite the delayed departure, the monsoon completes its return on time around October 15. This means that the monsoon lasts for almost the same duration in India, but has reset its internal calendar. Although last year the monsoon departed from the Goa coast on October 28, but set a record delay of 14 days.
The farming clock also needs to be reset after the subtle changes in the monsoon pattern in India. The different dates of onset and departure of monsoon than in the past can cause severe food crisis in some areas if the divergence is not included in farming. Then, there is a hint to tackle the challenges of global warming. However, in the second forecast of IMD, it has been said that India will receive above normal rainfall in 2021. One study points to a “reduction trend in rainfall” in India since 1973.
Monsoon pattern changed due to human intervention
The study found human intervention as the reason for the change in the monsoon pattern in India. The development activities have paid the price of heavy forest cover to India and caused carbon emissions. This has led to an increase in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean which affects the monsoon rainfall. Monsoon takes most of its moisture from the Arabian Sea and releases it as rain on Indian soil. The study said that most of the rain-prone places of Northeast India have shown a negative trend. Changes in the monsoon rain pattern have made Masinram the rainiest place in the world instead of Cherrapunji. Both these places are in Meghalaya at a distance of 15 km.
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