Who is in the fight in Himachal?
BJP would like to register victory in Himachal Pradesh by all means. In the 2017 assembly elections, 44 out of 68 seats came to the BJP’s account. Party’s national president JP Nadda comes from this state. On the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party had announced that it would stake its claim in Himachal and Gujarat only after a thumping victory in Punjab. The party has said that their candidates will stake their claim on all the seats in both the states.
AAP claims that after the victory in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh 1.5 lakh to three lakh people have taken membership of his party. While there are almost the same number of copies of the subscription in the field. Former DGP ID Bhandari has been made the state vice-president. IPS Jagatram is also in you. Both have the image of an honest officer. In such a situation, this time the fight is expected to be interesting.
On the other hand, BJP is excited after the victory in four states. The government has also been repeated in Uttarakhand adjoining Himachal. But in Himachal in the last 4 decades, no party has come back to power continuously. After 1980, the key to power in the state has been in the hands of Congress and sometimes in the hands of BJP. In 1980, the Congress government was formed under the leadership of Thakur Ramlal. In 1982, he was made the Governor of Andhra Pradesh and Virbhadra Singh took over the responsibility of the post of CM. In 1985, Virbhadra again came to power.
Since then, no party has been able to come to power for the second time in a row. The government has been changing every 5 years. But after the victory in Uttar Pradesh, BJP is confident that the myth of Himachal will also be broken. In Uttar Pradesh too, after 37 years, a party has come to power for the second time in a row. For the first time in Uttarakhand, which was formed in 2022, the government has been repeated.
On the other hand, the Congress is on alert mode after the defeat in five states. In Himachal Pradesh, it had won 21 seats in 2017. Sonia Gandhi is holding frequent meetings with other top party leaders in the capital Delhi. It is being said that the biggest threat to the Congress is the rise of AAP. Even before the elections, AAP has given a big blow to the Congress. Congress leader Vinod Kumar has joined AAP.
BJP troubled by factionalism
BJP is also troubled by factionalism in Himachal. On one hand the faction of former Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal is active, while on the other the faction of JP Nadda is also active. The BJP has also suffered the brunt of this factionalism in the by-elections. In the Jubbal Kotkhai assembly elections, the BJP candidate could not even save his deposit, getting only 2,644 votes.
What are the caste equations saying?
Himachal has so far had 6 chief ministers. Of these, Shantakumar was a Brahmin and the remaining 5 Chief Ministers Yashwant Singh Parmar, Thakur Ram Lal, Virbhadra Singh, Premkumar Dhumal and now Jai Ram Thakur all come from the Kshatriya fraternity. Thakuri constitute about 35 per cent of the population in the state. On the other hand, 25% are Dalits and about 18% are Brahmins. The share of OBC community is around 14 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party can beat the tally even by putting forward a non-Thakur face. Of the 68 seats in the state, 17 are reserved (for Dalits). The seats of Kinnaur, Lahaul Spiti and Bharmour are reserved for Scheduled Tribes.
Several reports claimed that in the 2017 assembly elections, 56 percent of the upper caste people supported the BJP while 35 percent went with the Congress. 10 per cent were with other parties. On the other hand, in the case of Rajputs, 36 percent had cast their vote for the Congress and 10 percent for other parties. BJP has penetration among OBC voters. In the last assembly elections, 48 percent of OBC votes went to BJP. Congress and BJP were equal in terms of Dalit votes. Whereas the first choice of Muslim was given to Congress, whose 67 percent fell in favor of Congress.
Gujarat- PM Modi and Amit Shah’s credibility at stake
On the one hand, the party workers were immersed in celebration after the victory in five states, on the other hand, the next day the Prime Minister of the country and the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi holds an election rally in Ahmedabad. Gujarat is the home state of both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. In such a situation, victory or defeat in Gujarat will be seen by connecting both the leaders. BJP is in power in Gujarat since 1995.
Modi became the Chief Minister of Gujarat for the first time in October 2001 after the resignation of Keshubhai Patel. He was the Chief Minister of the state for more than 12 years till he became the Prime Minister in May 2014. Since then it has been said that now BJP will not be able to shake from here. But now it is also being said that after Modi’s visit to Delhi, BJP has weakened in the state. Signs of this were received even before the 2017 elections. After Modi became the Prime Minister, Anandiben Patel was made the CM of the state. She was considered to be Modi’s confidant, but her position weakened due to the Patidar movement.
PM Modi’s roadshow in Ahmedabad.
Anandiben Patel had resigned in June 2016 before the 2017 assembly elections. But was not accepted. Violence against Dalits took place in the state this year in Una. After this, he resigned again in August which was accepted. After this, the command of the state was given to Vijay Rupani. The performance of BJP in the 2017 assembly elections was weaker than before. In the previous five assembly elections – 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007 and 2012, the BJP had between 115 and 127 seats in the state’s total of 182 assembly seats. But in 2017 it could win only 99 seats. Earlier in 1990, BJP had won less than 100 seats in the state. The performance of Congress also improved in 2017 and won 77 seats. While the BJP got about 49 percent of the votes, the Congress got about 41 percent of the votes. In this way the fight was fierce.
Will you spoil the work of Congress?
Congress has been away from power in the state for 27 years. It is believed that the Congress is strong in the countryside. On the other hand, after your arrival, the fight has become more interesting. Apart from this, more than 20 smaller parties are also making claims. After victory in Punjab, AAP’s eyes are now on Gujarat. Party convener and Delhi CM along with Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann has also done road shows in the state. AAP has entrusted the responsibility of victory in Gujarat to Sandeep Pathak, who was the architect of victory in Punjab.
On the other hand, AAP has increased the troubles of BJP and Congress by saying that according to their internal survey they are winning 58 seats in the state. He claimed that BJP is also accepting this fact. AAP’s state in-charge Dr. Sandeep Pathak told that this survey was done properly through the party’s own agency. According to the survey, the party is likely to get votes from rural voters dissatisfied with the Congress and lower and middle class voters in urban areas. We will win 58 seats. People of rural Gujarat are voting for us. The lower and middle classes in urban areas want change and they will vote for us.
AAP’s rally in Ahmedabad.
AAP is preparing to replace Congress in Gujarat. It is trying to get at least that many seats in the Gujarat elections to get the status of the main opposition party. For this, it will have to get more seats than the Congress. This is the reason why the Aam Aadmi Party is contacting the Patel community of Gujarat, the farming community, the angry business class and migrants from UP-Bihar to Gujarat. The party hopes that this class can prove to be helpful for them.
The Aam Aadmi Party has made a dent in the state since the last year’s municipal elections. In the 2021 Gujarat municipal elections, AAP had won 27 out of 120 seats in Surat Municipal Corporation. Most of these seats were in Patidar-dominated areas. On the other hand, the Congress was badly defeated in the stronghold of the Patidars. Gujarat Congress President Hardik Patel also comes from this Patidar society, but the Congress account was not even opened in Surat, the stronghold of this society.
How will the Congress sail through?
On the other hand, Congress is trying to make a comeback in Gujarat with the help of strategist Prashant Kishor. The party, which is battling with discord, wants to reinvent itself. Congress party is out of power in Gujarat for 27 years. In 1995, the party suffered a crushing defeat in Gujarat, after which the Congress could never form the government. In the last elections, there was a close fight between the BJP and the Congress, but the BJP was successful in forming the government. The party is showing signs of major changes in the state.
Gujarat Election: AAP may get 58 seats in Gujarat Assembly elections, claimed in internal survey
Congress sources claim that the internal party leadership is making a strategy to make big Patidar leader Naresh Patel as the chief minister’s face. Election strategist Prashant Kishor is an important part of this plan. If all goes well, soon Naresh Patel may join the Congress. Naresh Patel is the chairman of Khodaldham Trust, which runs Khodaldham Mata Temple, the Kuldevi of Leua Patels. Naresh Patel is not only a well-known name in the Patidar society due to religious and social works, he is also considered a good image among other societies of Gujarat. Naresh Patel also has a big business of his own and also his hold among the influential people of Patidar society. In such a situation, he is very strong not only politically but also financially.
Even if this happens, everything will not be so easy for the Congress. Naresh Patel is new in politics. He has not contested any election till date. In Punjab, Congress has already cheated by removing the Captain and placing bets on Channi and Sidhu.
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