Wheat Price Forecast: You have gold but not wheat in your house, how much will the price increase this year?

Despite the export ban, the price of wheat is running above the minimum support price (MSP) in all the mandis of the country. Because this year there has been a record export due to the Russo-Ukraine war. Then due to increase in heat, production was estimated to decrease. Due to both these reasons, there is a significant increase in the price of wheat this time. Whereas usually the price of wheat used to be below the MSP in the Indian market. Due to international reasons and reduction in production, this year the wheat lying in your house has become like gold. Experts say that the price of wheat will not be less than Rs 2500 per quintal this year.

In Beawar Mandi, Ajmer, Rajasthan, the price of wheat reached the maximum price of Rs 2900 per quintal on 16 May. While the average price was Rs 2650 and the minimum rate was Rs 2400 per quintal. In Begu Mandi located in Chittorgarh district here, the minimum price was Rs 2180, maximum 2300 and the average price was Rs 2200 per quintal. On the other hand, the maximum rate in Sriganganagar mandi was Rs 2600 and the average price was Rs 2285 per quintal. Whereas the government has fixed its minimum support price of 2015 at Rs. These price conditions show that this year the income of wheat producing farmers will increase.

What do market experts say?

According to Inderjit Paul, Senior Manager (Commodity Research), Origo E-Mandi, there was a fall in the prices of wheat in the domestic market by about 3 percent on Monday (May 16) after the ban on exports by the government. In the short term, there is a possibility of a correction in the prices due to the traders withdrawing their stock. In the short term, there may be a correction in the prices of wheat from Rs 100 to Rs 150. However, the fall in the prices of wheat will not last long, because with the forecast of lower wheat production this year, the stock of wheat with the government has declined by 42 percent compared to last year. .

Paul says that this is the reason why the demand for wheat will remain in the open market. For a long period i.e. till December 2022, the price of wheat can reach the level of Rs 2,500 to Rs 2,600 per quintal. Due to low production in major wheat producing countries Australia, European Union and Ukraine, there will be shortage of supply of wheat in the foreign market.

How much was the export (Wheat Export)

• According to the central government, the export of wheat in 2019-20 was only 2.17 lakh metric tonnes.
• Wheat export was 21.55 lakh metric tonnes in 2020-21 while 72.15 lakh metric tonnes in 2021-22.
• In April 2022 itself, about 11 lakh metric tonnes were exported, while there is an agreement of 40 lakh tonnes.
• India had set a target of exporting 10 million tonnes of wheat in 2022-23 amid increasing demand in the world.

Yield forecast and procurement target reduced

Heat waves have affected wheat crop this year in northwest India. Therefore, the government has estimated a decline in wheat production. The government had earlier estimated wheat production at 111.32 million tonnes for the crop year ending in June. Now it has been reduced to 105 million tonnes.

In view of the Russo-Ukraine war, India exported wheat fiercely. But due to this, the price of wheat in the domestic market went above the MSP. Due to this, farmers sold wheat to traders instead of government mandis. Then the government revised the target of government procurement for Rabi Marketing Season 2022-23 to 195 lakh metric tonnes. Whereas earlier the target of purchasing 444 lakh metric tonnes was set.