UP Assembly Elections: Jat-Muslim or Yadav-Muslim unity may be talked about on the upper surface, but in the atmosphere that has been created in the last seven-eight years, this seems to be meaningless. The truth is that when it comes to voting, caste comes in the way and then religion.
The Jats of Western Uttar Pradesh are making new political equations in this time’s assembly elections?
RLD’s Chaudhary Jayant (RLD Chief Jayant Chaudhary) Has said, they are not Chavanni, who will turn away. He said this while talking to his people at Khatauli in Muzaffar Nagar. Actually BJP (BJP) had created a ruckus in the RLD camp by saying that the party’s doors are always open for RLD and Jayant Choudhary. He replied in this context. Whereas BJP Western Uttar Pradesh (Western Uttar Pradesh) I am restless seeing the anger of the Jats. He feels, in 2017 the Jats turned the dice in his favor. But this time the Jats are vocal against him. Jats in western Uttar Pradesh are not only more in numbers, but they are also capable of turning the tide of elections. That’s why BJP doesn’t want to let the Jats go against them in any way. Here it has been believed from long ago, that with whom the Jatt, he has a crown on his head.
That is why the BJP is also engaged in the respect and morale of the Jats. Sanjeev Balyan has been put in this campaign and Amit Shah has also started celebrating Khaps by wearing a turban. But the first phase of voting is on 10th February, so will such an initiative remove the anger of the Jats after a total of 15 days? It is a question of lakhs of rupees. Experts say that most of the Jat Chaudharis who had gone to Amit Shah on January 26 with Sanjeev Baliyan are BJP supporters. The reason for this is that even Sanjeev Balyan himself does not have a special hold in the Jat-dominated areas of western Uttar Pradesh. That’s why Jats are at present where they were yesterday. Farmers of western Uttar Pradesh, especially in the sugarcane areas of Meerut and Muzaffar Nagar, are said to be unhappy with the BJP government. Since the Jat farmers are in the majority here, the BJP is apprehensive that on the coming February 10, the Jat should not spoil its situation.
Jats voted openly for BJP in 2017
There is no doubt that in 2017 Jats voted openly for BJP. He even ignored his family party, the RLD. But this time the situation is not in favor of BJP. Not only Jats are angry but Gujars, Saini, Kashyaps, Thakurs, Banias and Brahmins are also not happy with BJP. After this, all the MLAs of BJP did not do any remarkable work in their area. So the situation is complicated for the BJP.
On the other hand, Jayant Chaudhary of RLD has been busy in persuading Jats for the last one year. By giving the matter of Chaudhary Charan Singh, he has joined him. The Muslim vote is a big factor here. It is also a headache for the BJP that if another caste stands with the Muslim, then the BJP is sure to be wiped out from the West. Muslims are only looking for which party is capable of defeating BJP in their region.
Baghpat, Muzaffar Nagar, Shamli, Meerut and Bijnor are the districts where the Jats are deeply angry with the BJP. One is this sugarcane belt, secondly he feels that the BJP government has not done justice to him. Fertilizers, seeds and agricultural machinery are all out of his reach. Jat-Muslim alliances are strong in these districts, while Jats and other backward castes are also angry in Aligarh, Mathura and Agra. All these equations can put BJP in trouble. Now he is left with only one way, that somehow he breaks this equation going in favor of the SP-RLD alliance. And in this she is also succeeding. His remarks about RLD are also indicative of this.
How successful is Jat-Muslim unity on the ground
Actually the condition of Muslims in western Uttar Pradesh is very good. They have money as well as strength and unity. But this one caste alone cannot win anyone unless it can get the help of some castes of Hindus. Jats in the west and Yadavs in the east can be helpful to him.
But the contradiction in this is that neither the Muslim is sure that the Jat and the Yadav will be with him in every situation, nor do the Jat-Yadav believe it. Therefore, the situation of Muslim, Jat and Yadav society is shattered when they see that their party’s candidate in their seat is of opposite religion to them. Then Muslims turn on the other side and Jats or Yadavs on the other side. If the fight becomes triangular, the BJP is expected to get the benefit.
Now on the surface, Jat-Muslim or Yadav-Muslim unity may be talked about, but in the atmosphere that has been created in the last seven-eight years, this thing seems to be meaningless. The truth is that when it comes to voting, caste comes in the way and then religion. Let us not go too far, take Kairana only. The Muslim population here is huge and that population is of Gujar caste Muslims. That’s why Gujar Hindu Hukum Singh also kept winning from here. But now Nahid Hasan from SP and Mriganka Singh from BJP are face to face and both are Gujars.
Divided votes of Muslims will benefit BJP
Last time in 2017 also both were the same. Only Nahid Hasan was alive then. BJP is here with full force to break the Jats. But the Muslim population is so high here, that it does not seem possible. But on which side the camel will sit till the vote, nothing can be said. Not only in Kairana, the situation is strange in the remaining two seats of Shamli district – Shamli and Thanabhavan too. Suresh Rana is a BJP candidate in Thana Bhawan and is also a minister in the state government. Jat, Muslim unity has become a challenge for Suresh Rana, who has been MLA for two consecutive terms. The problem is that Rana is a Thakur and he is surrounded by the arrival of an independent Thakur Sher Singh Rana. In his favor, RLD and BSP have fielded Muslim candidates. BJP’s Tejendra Singh Nirwal won from Shamli in 2017. He defeated Pankaj Malik of Congress. This time Congress has fielded Muslim. RLD to Prasanna Choudhary and BSP to Muslim. Now if Muslims and Jats remain united here, then BJP will get the benefit otherwise.
BSP has given two indications by fielding Muslim candidates in many seats. One is that it will spoil the math of Muslim votes and secondly, how much unity is there between Muslims and Dalits, it will be known. Since the Dalit vote is evenly spread across the state and its population is not less than 20 per cent anywhere, the BSP is trying to blow away the alliance. If the SP chief had kept Chandrashekhar Azad with him, he could have made some dent in the Dalit vote. There is mainly the SP-RLD alliance and the BJP in the whole of western Uttar Pradesh, but Mayawati’s attack on the ground level will also be fine. Now it remains to be seen whose equation will the independents spoil and whose Owaisi-Chandrasekhar will? All in all, a fight that was being told a week ago is now stuck.
(Disclaimer: The author is a senior journalist. The views expressed in the article are the personal of the author.)
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