In the Bengal elections (Bengal Elections 2021), the BJP is claiming that it will get a bigger victory than UP in the 294-seat assembly. But the question arises on what basis this claim is being made? After all, what is the reason for this confidence?
Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Assembly elections of all the states (Assembly Elections 2021) have been completed on Tuesday and now only five phases of voting are left in Bengal (West Bengal). Meanwhile, today the convoy of Bengal BJP President Dilip Ghosh (Cooch Behar) was attacked in Cooch Behar of the state. Cooch Behar is one of the districts where voting is going to be held on April 10. It is alleged that this attack was carried out by supporters of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and during the attack, bombing was also carried out.
In fact, there was an election meeting of Dilip Ghosh in Sitalkuchi Cooch Behar in Cooch Behar today, during which the attack took place. According to the news, Dilip Ghosh waited for the police there for a long time and could get out only after getting security. In the pictures found of the incident, it can be seen that Dilip Ghosh is sitting in his car wearing a helmet to protect himself.
BJP claims victory before the election
There is only 3 rounds of voting in Bengal and 5 phases of voting are still remaining, but the BJP is claiming that it is winning the elections with an overwhelming majority. Even before the end of the electoral war, BJP is repeatedly claiming victory. Home Minister Amit Shah has again claimed in an interview today that the victory of Bengal will be bigger than the victory of Uttar Pradesh in 2017.
In the 2017 UP Assembly Elections in the year 2017, BJP got 312 seats out of 403. That is, the party captured three-fourth of the seats in the state. Now in the Bengal elections, the BJP is claiming that it will get a bigger victory than UP in the 294-seat assembly. But the question arises on what basis this claim is being made? After all, what is the reason for this confidence? After all, where did this confidence of victory within BJP come from?
Understand the mathematics of Muslim votes in West Bengal
For this, understand the mathematics of Muslim votes in West Bengal. Muslims constitute about 30 percent of the population in the state. It is believed that the unilateral vote of Muslims can affect the results in 70 to 100 seats. Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM is contesting on 7 seats in the state, while Abbas Siddiqui’s ISF, the Indian Secular Front, is contesting on 28 seats. The ISF has an alliance with the left front and the Congress. It is believed that the parties of Owaisi and Abbas will divide the Muslim vote, which will directly benefit the BJP.
TMC itself is apprehensive about this
Experts believe that TMC itself also fears that there may be a dent in its Muslim vote bank, which is why the party is also trying to stop the polarization of Hindu votes. This is the reason why TMC has not given tickets to Muslim candidates in those seats where the BJP performed better in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the party has fielded fewer Muslim candidates this time than in the 2016 assembly elections. TMC fielded 57 Muslim candidates in the year 2016, while this time only 42 Muslim candidates have got tickets.
TMC accused of Muslim appeasement
In this election, Mamta Banerjee has two problems in front of her. The first problem is that BJP is constantly accusing TMC of Muslim appeasement. It is believed that this may increase polarization of Hindu votes in favor of BJP. The other problem for Mamata is that the Muslim votes that Owaisi or Abbas Siddiqui will get will only be from the TMC part, obviously when defeat is felt on the one hand, the confidence of victory on the other side also increases.
South twenty four Parganas, Hooghly and Howrah districts of West Bengal are going to be decisive in this election. Elections have been held in two parts of the South Twenty Four Parganas, while the third part has voting on April 10. Similarly, elections are being held in two parts in Howrah and Hooghly. In most areas of the state, the fight is being described as two-sided, but the fight in these places is triangular and the reason is – Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui of Furfura Sharif.
Election Commission sent notice to Mamta Banerjee
At the same time, the Election Commission has issued a notice to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to campaign on communal basis. On April 3, Mamta Banerjee appealed to Muslim voters to unite and vote for TMC. The Commission has asked Mamta to reply within 48 hours in this case. Explain that it is illegal to ask for votes on the basis of religion, caste or language. Therefore, according to the notice, the Election Commission has found that the Chief Minister’s speech violates the provisions of the code of conduct.
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