Covid 19 end predictions: In countries where there have not been many cases of the disease before, even after most people have been vaccinated, many people will remain susceptible.
Coronavirus: How likely is the corona virus to end? (Source: Pexels)
Covid 19 End Prediction Worldwide: Will the corona pandemic end or not? Do we have to live with this disease? When will this virus end? For the last one and a half years, these questions have been cropping up in the minds of the people suffering from the pandemic. Everyone is desperate to know when and how this pandemic will end.
Nearly 18 months have passed since the global pandemic COVID-19, with the wearing of masks, social distancing and lockdown being lifted. The first and second wave of Corona have badly affected countries around the world and now the third wave is also being feared.
In a study published in the research journal The Conversation, expert Paul Hunter of Britain’s University of East Anglia and other experts have said that it is not possible to say anything with certainty about this. However, there is enough evidence to raise somewhat realistic hopes about how this pandemic will progress in the times to come.
Russian flu pandemic with fourth-fifth waves
This is not the first time that a corona virus has caused a terrible global pandemic. It has been speculated that the ‘Russian flu’, which appeared in 1889, was not actually influenza, but was caused by another corona virus, OC-43 (oc43).
The Russian flu global pandemic continued for five years with about four or five waves after which it disappeared. In England and Wales from 1890 to 1891, it caused the highest number of deaths. Likely cause, the prevalence of OC43 is still seen today but it is rare to cause serious disease.
Will live now Sars-Cov-2
Existing evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2, which spreads COVID-19, is also going to live. This conclusion was drawn a few months ago by many scientists working on the virus. Neither vaccines nor natural infection will stop the virus from spreading.
Vaccinations may reduce the spread of virus infection, but they do not completely stop the infection at the highest level to completely eliminate the virus. Before the delta form was exposed, we have also seen people who have taken both doses of the vaccine get infected with the virus and spread it to others. Because of the less effective vaccines in dealing with the delta form than other forms of the virus, there is an increased risk of infection even after vaccination.
Immunity starts to die after a period
Within a few weeks after receiving the second dose of the vaccine, the immunity to infection also begins to decline. And since immunity to infection is neither complete nor permanent, therefore ‘herd immunity’ is impossible. This means that COVID-19 is likely to be endemic, with the daily infection rate incidence depending on how much immunity the entire population has.
Viruses spread infection repeatedly in 3 to 6 years
Other human coronaviruses cause recurrent infections on average every three to six years. If SARS-CoV-2 behaves in the same way, it means that between 16.6 percent and one-third of people in the UK, or 11 to 22 million people, may be infected on average every year, or 30,000 to 60,000 people a day. But it’s not as scary as it sounds.
Yes, emerging research shows that the immune defense against symptomatic COVID-19 appears to be diminishing. Protection against serious disease (which results from either vaccination or natural infection) is much longer. Even in the face of new forms, it does not seem to diminish.
Many epidemics have ended
How COVID-19 will end, it will be different from country to country. This largely depends on the proportion of immune people and how much infection has occurred since the start of the pandemic (and how much natural immunity has built up).
In the UK and other countries where most of the population has been vaccinated and the number of previous cases is high, most people will have some form of immunity to the virus.
The virus will remain among us but the disease will become history
In people with prior immunity, it has been observed that COVID-19 is less severe. And as more people’s immunity is boosted over time by natural re-infection or booster vaccination, we can consider an increasing proportion of new infections to be asymptomatic or, in the worst case, mild. The virus will remain among us, but the disease will become a part of our history.
But in countries that have not previously seen many cases of the disease, even after most people have been vaccinated, many people will remain susceptible. Nevertheless, the important lesson to be learned from the Russian flu is that the impact of COVID-19 will subside in the coming months, and that most countries have certainly passed the worst of the pandemic. But it is still important that the vaccine is offered to the rest of the world’s vulnerable population.
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