Retail inflation declined marginally to 6.44 percent in February. While it was 6.52 percent in January 2023 and 6.07 percent in February 2022.
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How much does America increase its interest rates in the month of March, whether it will happen or not, or there will be no change, things like what will happen in April RBI MPC meeting And there will be no impact on the decisions made in it. There are reasons for that. The February retail inflation figures have come down in India, but they are still higher than the upper level of the RBI’s tolerance band. Second, the fear of El-Nino is clearly visible. Because of which an increase in food inflation can be seen. Due to these reasons, RBI can increase its policy interest interest rates. Because of which the interest rates can go to the high of 7 years.
Fear of El Nino
This time the fear of El-Nino is clearly visible in the country. PM Narendra Modi also had a meeting in this month. It is estimated that this time due to El-Nino, a clear effect can be seen on the monsoon. This time the value may be normal or less than normal. Because of which the agriculture sector can be affected and an increase in inflation can be seen. Due to the heat in the month of March, the effect can also be seen in the production of wheat. In such a situation, instructions have been given to everyone to be cautious and careful and keep an eye on the situation.
read this also: Double relief on inflation front, wholesale inflation at 25-month low in February
February inflation figures
The figures for the month of February have come to the fore. There has been a slight decline in retail inflation. Even after that, retail inflation is more than 6 percent of the upper level of RBI’s tolerance band. According to the data, retail inflation declined marginally to 6.44 percent in February. While it was 6.52 percent in January 2023 and 6.07 percent in February 2022. In fact, retail inflation had gone below 6 per cent in the months of November and December. After that inflation has bounced back again. Inflation rate of more than 6 percent for two consecutive months can increase the pressure on RBI to increase interest rates again.
read this also: Slight relief on the inflation front, retail inflation at 6.44 percent
There may be an increase of 25 basis points
According to the research of DBS Bank, the inflation figures are still more than 6 percent and the havoc of El-Nino remains intact. Due to which RBI can increase the repo rates by 25 basis points. After which the interest rate in the country can reach 6.75 percent. Which will be on the high of 7 years. Earlier in the month of February, to control inflation, RBI had increased the rate by 25 basis points. After which the interest rates had come down to 6.50 per cent.
Source: www.tv9hindi.com
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