The growth forecast has been raised from 8.9 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
Swiss brokerage company UBS Securities has revised its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September, citing a faster-than-expected recovery, increased consumer confidence and increased spending. The brokerage company has projected the economy’s growth rate to be 7.7 percent in the financial year 2022-23, which may be six percent in the financial year 2023-24.
By the end of the financial year 2022-23, due to the estimation of the benefits of the low interest rate regime to be over, it was said that the growth rate will decrease in 2023-24. The central bank may increase policy rates by 50 basis points in the second half of the next financial year. The Reserve Bank has also projected 9.5 per cent GDP growth in the current financial year, while the average estimate is between 8.5 and 10 per cent. The government’s estimate is around 10 per cent. GDP grew by 20.1 percent in the June quarter of the financial year 2021-22.
Fitch Ratings retains rating
Here Fitch Ratings has kept India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-‘ with a negative outlook, while not making any changes. Fitch said in a statement that this rating of the Indian economy reflects a balance between the medium-term growth outlook and external resilience. Apart from this, there is also the impact of a weak financial sector and some structural issues. Fitch said, we forecast that the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in this financial year will be at a strong level of 8.7 percent. Whereas in the year 2022-23 it may remain 10 percent. This is supported by the combative capacity of India’s economy in its rapid recovery from the COVID pandemic.
Outlook upgraded from negative to stable
Rating agency Moody’s has upgraded India’s outlook from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’ while maintaining its sovereign rating. Moody’s estimates that the state of India’s economy will continue for the next year-and-a-half. In its estimate, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GPD) will grow at an annual rate of 9.3 percent in the current financial year ending March 2022. The agency has estimated GDP growth to be 7.9 percent in the next financial year.
Economy moving towards growth path
Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) chairman Bibek Debroy said on Wednesday that India’s economy is moving towards a high growth trajectory and is likely to grow at around 10 per cent in the financial year 2021-22. “I am confident that we are moving towards a prosperous, more developed and better governed India with a higher growth rate, higher poverty alleviation rate, higher employment rate,” Debroy said at an SBI event.
The actual growth rate is estimated to be around 10 percent.
He said, “I think this year (FY 2022) the real rate of growth is going to be around 10 per cent.” Was. Debroy said that however, all kinds of high frequency indicators including GST revenue, e-way bills, electricity consumption, vehicle registration, railway freight, corporate profitability, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and steel consumption are now confident about it. Let us assume that the real growth rate in the current financial year will be around 10 percent.
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